Total new-vehicle sales in January, at 50 073 units, increased by 3 479 units, or 7.5%, compared with January last year, reports naamsa | The Automotive Business Council.

The industry body says the positive numbers, carried over from a buoyant 2025, show “a material improvement in underlying demand conditions, supported by moderating inflation, stable macroeconomic variables and a resilient consumer base”.

The January new-passenger-car market, at 37 190 units, grew by 7.1% compared with the first month of last year.

Sales of new light commercial vehicles (bakkies, panel vans and mini-buses) expanded by 11%, to 10 996 units.

The business community, however, failed to share the optimism of car buyers as the new year got out of the starting blocks.

Medium truck sales contracted by 5.9%, to 542 units, while heavy truck and bus sales declined by 4.3%, to 1 345 units.

naamsa notes that truck fleet replacement decisions were closely linked to infrastructure investment trends, logistics performance, electricity costs and confidence in the broader investment outlook.

January new-vehicle export sales inched up 0.6%, to 24 568 units.

naamsa warns that the auto industry’s export outlook is increasingly shaped by heightened protectionism across several of South Africa’s key export markets.

“The proliferation of trade-restrictive measures and evolving industrial policies in advanced economies continue to test South Africa’s automotive export competitiveness and market access conditions.

“Furthermore, deepening trade and industrial arrangements between Western and Eastern economies – including preferential trade agreements, regional content rules, and strategic supply chain realignments – are expected to pose upward risks to South Africa’s vehicle export competitiveness and market share in certain traditional export destinations.

“These developments underscore the growing importance of cost competitiveness, and policy certainty in sustaining South Africa’s export performance over the medium to long term.”

naamsa adds that the local auto industry awaits “with pressing anticipation” the finalisation of government’s review of its automotive policy framework – the Automotive Production and Development Programme – which it regards as “crucial for the sector’s long-term competitiveness, investment attractiveness and resilience”.

“In an increasingly complex and rapidly evolving global automotive environment – characterised by technological disruption, shifting trade alliances and accelerated energy transition pathways – a coherent, forward-looking policy framework remains critical to secure South Africa’s position within global and regional automotive value chains.”